Uhlolojikelele:Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni, amanani entengo yensimbi, amalahle okuphekela, ibhilethi, insimbi ye-strip, ipayipi lensimbi nezinye izinto ezithengiswa ngobuningi aye ashintshashintsha kakhulu. Nakuba izinqubomgomo ezahlukene zezimali ezixegayo nezihlakaniphile zikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa komnotho wasekhaya kulo nyaka, imboni yezokwakha ilulame kancane kulo nyaka. Ukwengeza, isimo sangaphandle sisenzima futhi sinzima, umphumela wokuhoxiswa kwenqubomgomo kwezomnotho omkhulu wanda, futhi kunezingqinamba eziningi ekukhishweni kwezidingo zasekhaya. Ubudlelwano obuphelele bokuhlinzeka nokufunwa kwezinhlobo zensimbi kulo nyaka ngokuyisisekelo kuphethini "yokulindela okuqinile kanye neqiniso elibuthakathaka". Njengenhlobonhlobo yamapayipi ashiselwe embonini yezokwakha, leli phepha lizohlaziya kafushane ukusebenza kwamapayipi ashiselwe eShayina ezinyangeni ezedlule.
Ⅰ. Intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe yehla kakhulu unyaka nonyaka
Uma sibheka intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe kazwelonke eminyakeni emine edlule, indawo yokuqala yentengo yamapayipi ashiselwe ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ngokusobala iphansi kunaleyo yangesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. Ngomhla zi-2 kuMasingana, 2023, isilinganiso sikazwelonke sentengo yamapayipi ashiselwe sasingu-4,492 yuan/ton, sehle ngo-677 yuan/ton unyaka nonyaka; Kusukela ngomhla ka-7 Juni 2023, inani lentengo lamapayipi ashiselwe ngo-2023 lalingu-4,153 yuan/ton, lehle ngo-1,059 yuan/ton noma u-20.32% unyaka nonyaka.
Kusukela ngo-2021, izintengo zempahla ziye zaqhubeka nokusebenza ngezinga eliphezulu, i-PPI kwezomnotho emikhulu ifinyelele phezulu, futhi izintengo eziphakeme zemikhiqizo ekhuphuka nomfula ziqhubekile nokudluliselwa ezindaweni ezimaphakathi neziphansi. Kusukela ngoJuni 2022, ngesidingo esiphansi esiqhubekayo semikhiqizo eqediwe, amanani entengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe ehle kakhulu, futhi intengo ejwayelekile yamapayipi ensimbi nayo isiqalile ukwehla kakhulu. Ngemva kwamagagasi amaningana okwehla ngokushesha kwamanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo, intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe kulo nyaka iphansi kakhulu kunaleyo yenkathi efanayo ngonyaka odlule. Ngekota yokuqala, ngaphansi kokulindela okungcono kakhulu, umkhawulo wesidingo esingezansi waba ngcono, futhi intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe kazwelonke yenyuka kancane. Kodwa-ke, ngokuhluleka kwesidingo senkathi ephakeme yendabuko, amanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo nemikhiqizo eqediwe aqala ukwehla, kodwa ukwehla kwentengo akuzange kukhulise isidingo sangempela. NgoJuni, intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe kazwelonke yayisivele isezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni yakamuva.
Ⅱ. Uhlu lukazwelonke lwenhlalo yomphakathi lwamapayipi ashiselwe luphansi unyaka nonyaka
Bethintwe ukushintshashintsha okukhulu kanye noshintsho olusheshayo lwentengo yamapayipi ashiselwe eminyakeni emibili edlule, abahwebi abaningi bakhethe izindlela zokuphatha ezizinzile kulo nyaka. Ukuze kuncishiswe ingcindezi elethwa ukusilela emuva kwe-inventory, uhlu lwamagama lwagcinwa lusezingeni eliphakathi neliphansi. Ngemuva kokuthi intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe iguquguquka futhi yehla ngoMashi, ukusungulwa kwenhlalo yamapayipi ashiselwe eChina kwehle ngokushesha. Kusukela mhla zi-2 kuNhlangulana, isibalo sikazwelonke senhlalo yamapayipi ashiselwe bekungamathani angu-820,400, okuwukukhula ngo-0.47% inyanga nenyanga kanye nokwehla ngo-10.61% unyaka nonyaka, okufinyelele ezingeni eliphansi le-inventory eminyakeni emithathu edlule. Muva nje, abadayisi abaningi banengcindezi encane yokusungula.
Umfanekiso 2: Inventory Social of Welded Pipe (Iyunithi: amathani ayi-10,000)
Ⅲ.Inzuzo yamapayipi ashiselwe isezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emithathu edlule
Ngokombono wesilinganiso senzuzo yemboni yamapayipi ashiselwe, inzuzo yemboni yamapayipi ashiselwe ishintshashintsha kakhulu kulo nyaka, engahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezilandelayo. Kusukela ngomhlaka-10 Meyi 2023, isilinganiso senzuzo yansuku zonke yemboni yamapayipi ashiselwe kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMashi yayingu-105 yuan/ton, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngamayuan angama-39/ton; Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMashi, isilinganiso senzuzo yansuku zonke yemboni yamapayipi kathayela sasingu-157 yuan/ton, okuwukunyuka kwama-yuan/ton angu-28 unyaka nonyaka; Kusukela ngo-Ephreli kuya kuMeyi, isilinganiso senzuzo yemboni yansuku zonke yamapayipi ashiselwe sasingu-82 yuan/ton, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngamayuan angu-126/ton; Kusukela ngo-Ephreli kuya kuMeyi, isilinganiso senzuzo yansuku zonke yemboni yamapayipi ayizi-20 yuan/ton, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngamayuan angama-44/ton; Njengamanje, inzuzo yemboni yamapayipi ashiselwe isezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emithathu yakamuva.
Kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, zonke izingxenye zezwe ziye zasheshisa ukwakhiwa kwamaphrojekthi amakhulu ukusiza umnotho “uqale kahle”. Ngekota yokuqala, ekupheleni kokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane, ukulindela kwemakethe kwakuthuthuka, futhi amanani entengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe nemikhiqizo eqediwe ayesebenza ngokuqinile. Beqhutshwa “ukulindela okuqinile”, izimboni zamapayipi ashiselwe kanye nezizinda zamapayipi zazizimisele ngokuqinile ukusekela amanani, futhi ukunyuka kwakungaphezu kwalokho kwe-strip steel, futhi inzuzo yamukelekile. Kodwa-ke, ekupheleni kukaMashi, isidingo esilindelekile asikakhishwa. Njengoba ukushisa kuncipha futhi izindaba ezimbi zezimali zamazwe ngamazwe ziphakama, ukulindela okunamandla kubuyela eqinisweni, futhi izintengo zamafektri amapayipi nabahwebi baqala ukuwa ngaphansi kwengcindezi. NgoJuni, inzuzo yemboni yamapayipi ashiselwe ibe sezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emithathu edlule, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi amathuba okuqhubeka nokuwa kakhulu aphansi.
Umfanekiso 3: I-Social Inventory of Welded Pipe (Iyunithi: amathani ayi-10,000)
Umfanekiso 4: Ukushintsha inzuzo yepayipi likathayela eminyakeni yamuva (iyunithi: yuan/ton)
Umthombo wedatha: Idatha ye-Steel Union
IV. Okuphumayo kanye Nokufakwa Kwamabhizinisi Ashiselwe Amapayipi Okukhiqiza
Uma sibheka umkhiqizo kanye nohlu lwabakhiqizi bamapayipi ashiselwe, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi kulo nyaka, umkhiqizo usuwonke wefekthri yamapayipi wehle kakhulu unyaka nonyaka, futhi izinga lokusebenzisa amandla lisahleli ku-60.2%. Ngaphansi kwezinga eliphansi lokusebenzisa umthamo unyaka nonyaka, uhlu lwefekthri yamapayipi lwaluhlala luphakeme kunaleso sesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. Kusukela ngomhla ka-2 Juni 2023, ngokwezibalo zokulandelela zabakhiqizi bamapayipi ashiselwe angu-29 kunethiwekhi yethu, inani eliphelele lamapayipi ashiselwe kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi lalimathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.64, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngamathani angu-582,200 noma u-7.08%. Njengamanje, inani lefekthri yamapayipi ashiselwe ngamathani angama-81.51, ukwehla konyaka ngonyaka ngamathani angama-34,900.
Eminyakeni emibili yakamuva, ethintwe ingcindezi yokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni, ukuncipha kwesidingo sangaphakathi somfula kanye nezinye izici eziningi, ukukhishwa kwamapayipi ashiselwe ezimbonini zamapayipi amakhulu asekhaya kuye kwagcina izinga eliphansi. Ekuqaleni konyaka omusha, ukuze kugwenywe izingozi ezilethwa ukushintshashintsha kwentengo, izinga lokusebenzisa umthamo lilonke labakhiqizi bamapayipi ashiselwe laliphansi kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi. Nakuba ukukhiqizwa kwefemu yamapayipi kwaqala ukwanda ngokusobala ngokunyuka kwenzuzo yemboni yamapayipi ngoFebhuwari, yaze yadlula isikhathi esifanayo sangonyaka odlule, ukukhiqizwa kwefemu yamapayipi kwaqala ukwehla ngokushesha ekupheleni kukaNdasa lapho inzuzo yefemu yamapayipi yehla ngokushesha. Njengamanje, i-logic yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo samapayipi ashiselwe kusesephethini elibuthakathaka lokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo.
Umfanekiso 5: Ukushintsha kokuphuma kwamapayipi ashiselwe ezimbonini zamapayipi ajwayelekile angama-29 (iyunithi: amathani ayi-10,000)
Umthombo wedatha: Idatha ye-Steel Union
Umfanekiso 6: Izinguquko kuhlu lwemikhiqizo eqediwe yamafekthri amapayipi ajwayelekile angama-29 (iyunithi: amathani ayi-10,000)
Umthombo wedatha: Idatha ye-Steel Union
V. Isimo esiphansi sepayipi elishiselwe
Ngokombono wemakethe yezindlu, imakethe yezindlu ezithengiswayo iye yaba sengozini eminyakeni yamuva, futhi isidingo sezindlu asanelanga Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezwe lokuthuthukiswa kwezakhiwo kwakuyi-3,551.4 billion yuan, phansi ngo-6.2% unyaka nonyaka; Phakathi kwazo, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezindlu bekungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2,707.2, kwehle ngo-4.9%. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, izindawo ezihlukahlukene zikhiphe izinqubomgomo zilandelana ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukubuyiselwa kwemakethe yezindlu nemizi, isibonelo, ukuxegiswa kwesilinganiso semalimboleko, inani lesikhwama se-provident kanye neziqu zokuthenga izindlu. Ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala, amadolobha angama-96 ahlangabezane nemibandela yokuxegisa umkhawulo ophansi wezinga lenzalo yokuqala yemali mboleko yezindlu, phakathi kwawo amadolobha angama-83 ehlise umkhawulo ophansi wezinga lenzalo yokuqala yemalimboleko kanye namadolobha ayi-12 akhansela ngokuqondile umkhawulo ophansi wezinga lenzalo yokuqala yemali mboleko yezindlu. Ngemuva koSuku lukaMeyi, izindawo eziningi ziyaqhubeka nokulungisa inqubomgomo yemalimboleko yesikhwama se-provident. Kulo nyaka, ithoni eyinhloko yenqubomgomo yebhange eliphakathi emakethe yezindlu ezithengiswayo "ukuphatha kokubili okubandayo nokushisayo", okungagcini nje ngokusekela amadolobha abhekene nobunzima obukhulu emakethe yezindlu ukuze asebenzise ngokugcwele ibhokisi lamathuluzi lenqubomgomo, kodwa futhi kudinga amadolobha anentengo ekhuphukayo yezindlu ukuthi ahoxise inqubomgomo yokusekela ngesikhathi. Ngokuqaliswa kwezinqubomgomo ezihlukahlukene, kulindeleke ukuthi umkhuba ojwayelekile wokubuyiselwa kwemakethe yezindlu uzohlala ungashintshile kulo nyaka, kodwa izinga lokubuyisela lizohamba kancane.
Uma sibheka izinga lokukhula lokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda, ngokwemininingwane ekhishwe yi-National Bureau of Statistics, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda kazwelonke (ngaphandle kwezimboni zikagesi, ukushisa, igesi kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamanzi kanye nokuhlinzeka ngempahla) kukhuphuke ngo-8.5% unyaka nonyaka. Phakathi kwazo, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezokuthutha ngololiwe kunyuke ngo-14.0%, ukongiwa kwamanzi ngo-10.7%, ezokuthutha ngo-5.8% kanye nokuphathwa kwezikhungo zomphakathi ngo-4.7%. Ngokukhuluphala ngokweqile kwezinqubomgomo zokulawula nokulawula i-counter-cyclical, ukwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda kulindeleke ukuthi kubambe iqhaza elisekelayo.
Ngo-Ephreli, inkomba yabaphathi bokuthenga (PMI) yemboni yezokukhiqiza ibingama-49.2%, yehle ngamaphesenti angama-2.7 ukusuka ngenyanga edlule, iphansi kunephuzu elibucayi, nezinga lokuchuma kwezimboni zokukhiqiza lehlile, lehla ebangeni lenkontileka okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngoFebhuwari. Ngokwezimboni, inkomba yemisebenzi yebhizinisi yemboni yezokwakha ibingu-63.9%, yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.7 ukusuka ngenyanga edlule. Inkomba yokukhiqiza kanye nesidingo sehlile, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesidingo semakethe esinganele. Nakuba inkomba yemisebenzi yebhizinisi yemboni yezokwakha yehle kancane ngo-Ephreli uma iqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, i-PMI yemboni yezokwakha yayingaphezu kwama-60% izinyanga ezintathu ezilandelanayo, esagcina izinga lokuchuma eliphezulu. Kulindeleke ukuthi imboni yezokwakha ithuthuke, kodwa ukusimama kokukhiqizwa kanye nesidingo embonini kusadingeka ukubuyiselwa kancane kancane.
VI. I-Market Outlook
Izindleko: NgoJuni, ngomzuliswano weshumi wokwenyuka kwentengo ye-coke, isimo semakethe saphinde sehla. Njengamanje, ukusebenza okuphelele kwezisekelo ze-coke ne-iron ore kusesesimweni sokuhlinzekwa okuqinile nokunikezwa okubuthakathaka, kuyilapho izigayo zensimbi zinezilindelo ezimbi zesidingo sesikhathi esizayo, ngakho ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqiza ngeke kube yinto evamile esikhathini esifushane, futhi ingcindezi isazonikezwa izinto zokusetshenziswa. Kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi kuya ekuqaleni kukaJuni, kuba nesimo sezulu esishisayo eningizimu. Ngokukhula kwesidingo sikagesi wezindawo zokuhlala kanye nokubekwa phezulu kwezikhungo zikagesi ukuze kulungiswe amalahle ehlobo, isidingo samalahle sizoba nendawo yokushintshashintsha, kodwa futhi kuzoholela ekwehleni kwamanani ensimbi yensimbi. Esikhathini esifushane, ngokuncipha kokusekelwa kwezindleko, izintengo ze-strip steel zingaqhubeka ziba buthaka.
Isimo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ekuqaleni kukaJuni, izinga lokusebenza kwamabhizinisi okukhiqiza amapayipi ashiselwe lehle kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, futhi uhlu lwezimboni zamapayipi lwaqhubeka nokwehla. Esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, ingcindezi yokusungula yefekthri yamapayipi ayinkulu, futhi ukukhishwa kwefektri yamapayipi kuzokwanda ngemva kokuba inzuzo yefektri yamapayipi ilungiswe ngokusobala.
Isidingo: Ngesisekelo sokujulisa iphrojekthi yokuhlola kanye nokufingqa kanye nokwazisa okuhlangenwe nakho okuphindaphindekayo, i-China izoqala iphrojekthi yokuphepha yomugqa wokuphila wengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni ngendlela yawo wonke. Kuyadingeka ukuthi kwenziwe ucwaningo olujwayelekile lwengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni, kusungulwe isizindalwazi sengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni ehlanganisa umhlabathi nangaphansi, kuhlonzwe imithombo yobungozi kanye nezindawo ezinobungozi zengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni, futhi kuhlanganiswe uhlu lwezingozi zokuphepha zasemadolobheni. Indlela yokuphila yengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni ibhekise kwingqalasizinda yasemadolobheni efana negesi, amabhuloho, ukuphakelwa kwamanzi, ukuthuthwa kwamanzi, ukuphakelwa kokushisa kanye nomhubhe osetshenziswayo, okungahlukaniseki emisebenzini yasemadolobheni kanye nempilo yabantu. “Njengemithambo yegazi” kanye “nemithambo yegazi” yomzimba womuntu, kuyisiqinisekiso sokusebenza okuphephile kwamadolobha.
VII. Isifinyezo
Sekukonke, engxenyeni yokuqala, ngaphansi kokulindela okungcono kakhulu, intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe isekelwe kancane. Kusukela ngo-Ephreli kuya kuMeyi, ukusebenza okuyisisekelo kwelahle lamalahle nensimbi kwakunamandla futhi kubuthakathaka, futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko kwaba buthaka. Nakuba ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda kuya ngokukhula, inkambiso evamile yokuvuselelwa kwemakethe embonini yezindlu nezindlu isalokhu ingashintshile kulo nyaka, kodwa isivinini sokuthola kabusha sihamba kancane. Ngokuqala kwephrojekthi yokuphepha yomzila wokuphila wengqalasizinda yasemadolobheni, isidingo samapayipi ensimbi singase sikhule esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, kodwa ibhalansi phakathi kokuhlinzeka nokufunwa zisazothatha isikhathi. Ngokuhambisana nenqubomgomo yenzalo ephezulu ye-Fed, inkinga yasebhange iyaqhubeka nokuvunda, futhi inkokhelo yengozi yomhlaba wonke izokhuphuka kakhulu, okuzobhebhethekisa ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe zempahla futhi kungase kuthinte ukuthengiswa kweChina. Sekukonke, kulindeleke ukuthi intengo yamapayipi ashiselwe kazwelonke isazoyeka ukwehla futhi izinze kusukela ngoJuni kuya kuJulayi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-28-2023